Data on agricultural production. Methodology for calculating and summarizing reserves for increasing crop production How to find the share of crop production

The main directions for increasing crop production are presented in Fig. 2.

You can see how production will change due to the expansion of sown areas, i.e. use of land resources (inclusion in agricultural circulation of lands occupied by shrubs, fallow lands, wetlands, under roads and driveways, etc.).

Unused reserves for increasing production due to incomplete use of land resources are considered to be those that are associated with under-fulfillment of the action plan for land improvement.

The production of crop products is carried out on land, which in agriculture acts as the main means of production. The spatial dispersion of agricultural production and its close dependence on natural and climatic conditions, as well as the conduct of agricultural activities on soils of varying quality, necessitate the rational placement of crops, which, in combination with specialization, can have a significant impact on the failure to obtain results. Thus, a significant reserve for increasing production in crop production is improving the structure of sown areas, i.e. increasing the share of higher-yielding crops in the total sown area. To calculate the value of this reserve, it is first necessary to develop a more optimal crop structure for a given farm, taking into account all its capabilities and limitations, and then compare the actual volume of production with the possible one that will be obtained from the same total actual area, with actual crop yields, but with improved crop structure.

Figure 2. Main directions for increasing crop production

For example, a farm has the opportunity to increase the share of more productive crops. vegetable crops by reducing the share of less productive ones. To determine the increase in vegetable production, it is necessary to make a calculation based on the chain substitution method

An increase in crop production also depends on an increase in crop yields. Economic research, as well as the work of many agricultural scientists, shows that high level agricultural yields can only be achieved with high farming standards and the use of mineral fertilizers and plant protection products, the use of high-quality seeds, which requires additional costs. In the production of grain, sugar beets and other crops based on the use of intensive technologies, a three to fourfold increase in profit is achieved, with an increase in the total costs of material and monetary resources per 1 hectare by 20-60%, while ensuring timely payback of additionally invested funds. Thus, an increase in agricultural yields can occur due to:

a) increasing the dose of fertilizer;
b) increasing their payback;
c) introduction of more productive crop varieties;
d) reducing product losses during harvesting;
e) improvement of hayfields and pastures and other agrotechnical activities.

To calculate the increase in production due to additional fertilizer application, the amount of additional fertilizer required is i-th culture in terms of the active substance, multiply by the actual increase in the yield of a given crop, which is provided by 1 centner of NPK on the farm.

A significant increase in production in crop production occurs due to an increase in the payback of fertilizers, which in turn depends on the dose and quality of fertilizers, their structure, timing and methods of application to the soil. Increases in the payback (efficiency) of fertilizers are determined by analyzing their use by developing specific measures (construction of warehouses for their storage, balancing fertilizers for each crop, etc.). Then the possible increase in the payback of fertilizers is multiplied by the planned volume of their application to the soil for each crop and thus the reserve for increasing production is determined.

Increasing yield largely depends on the seeding rate, quality and variety of seeds. A lack of seeds, a decrease in seeding rates, and the use of substandard seeds reduce the number of plants on each hectare, create conditions for the proliferation of weeds, and reduce crop yields. It is necessary to establish whether seeding standards have been met everywhere, taking into account the quality of the seeds, what is the actual germination of seeds (according to control surveys of plots and fields). If there has been thinning of the fields as a result of a decrease in seeding rates, poor quality of seeds, violation of the timing and methods of sowing, then it is necessary to calculate how much the crop yield has decreased due to this factor.

The implementation of the plan for the introduction of more promising and high-yielding varieties has a great impact on productivity. Due to underfulfillment of the sowing plan for some varieties and overfulfillment of others, the relationships between them change. If the share of more productive varieties increases, then as a result the average crop yield increases and vice versa. The influence of this factor on changes in crop yield can be calculated using the method of chain substitution or absolute differences.

Significant losses of crop production can be caused by violations of harvesting methods and timing. Their total volume can be defined as the difference between the biological and actually obtained mass of the crop. If harvesting deadlines are violated, grain shedding occurs and the physical mass of most agricultural crops is lost. Difference in yield when harvested in optimal timing and later than these deadlines, multiplied by the area harvested late, in this case will show the real amount of the reserve. To reduce losses during potato harvesting, farms plan to carry out harrowing of the potato field after harvesting, then plowing and re-harrowing. If these activities were not carried out or were carried out incompletely, it is necessary to calculate the unused potential for potato production. The calculation is carried out as follows: underfulfillment of the plan for each type of post-harvest work is multiplied by the average collection of tubers per 1 hectare during the corresponding event.

Not the least important place in increasing crop production is occupied by: methods and quality of land cultivation, methods of sowing and caring for crops, alternating crops in crop rotation fields, liming the soil, improving meadows and pastures, etc. This can be determined by comparing the yield of crops in the fields, at which the relevant event was and was not held.

An important reserve for increasing production is preventing losses during harvesting. If harvesting deadlines are violated, grain is shed and the physical mass of most agricultural crops is lost...

Source: AB-Center Expert and analytical center for agribusiness "AB-Center"

Crop production in Russia is the main branch of the country's agriculture. The total volume of crop production in all categories of farms (the commercial sector, which includes agricultural organizations and peasant farms, and the non-profit sector - households) in Russia in 2015 in value terms is estimated at 2,636.8 billion rubles. Compared to 2014, the cost of crop production increased by 18.6% or 414.3 billion rubles.

Sustainable development of crop production in Russia is carried out only through the industrial (commercial) sector. The total volume of crop products produced by agricultural organizations and farms in the Russian Federation increased compared to 2014 by 306.5 billion rubles (23.5%) and reached 1,611.1 billion rubles.

As for the non-profit sector - households, the cost of production here in 2015, compared to 2014, increased by 11.8% to 1,025.7 billion rubles. Taking into account the fact that the average inflation rate in the Russian Federation in 2015 was 12.91%, we can talk about stagnation and a slight decrease in the cost of crop production in the non-profit sector.

Share of crop production in agriculture

The share of crop production in the total value of agricultural products in 2015 was 52.3%, the remaining 47.7% of the value was provided by the livestock industry.

Crop industries

The main branches of crop production, according to the production classification, include the industry for growing grain crops (wheat, barley, rye, triticale, corn, buckwheat, rice, sorghum, millet), leguminous crops (peas, beans, lentils, chickpeas), the industry for cultivating oilseeds (sunflower, soybeans, rapeseed, camelina, mustard), sugar crops (sugar beets in the Russian Federation), potato growing, vegetable growing ( open ground, protected soil), gardening, melon growing, industry for growing spinning crops (flax, cotton, hemp), fodder crops.

Crop production in Russian regions

The largest contribution in value terms to crop production at the end of 2015 was made by the Krasnodar Territory.

The value of products produced in the crop production industry of the Krasnodar Territory in 2015 amounted to 242.4 billion rubles, which is 17.5% higher than in 2014. The share of crop production in the Krasnodar Territory in the total value of crop production in Russia was 9.2%.

Second place belongs to the Rostov region, where the crop production industry produced products worth 155.2 billion rubles, which is 20.8% higher than a year ago. The share of the region's crop production in the total cost of crop production at the end of 2015 reached 5.9%.

Crop production of the Voronezh region is in third place with a share of 5.0%. The total value of crop production in the region is estimated at 131.2 billion rubles, an increase compared to 2014 by 30.4%.

In fourth place is the Stavropol Territory with a share of 4.5%, where they collected crop products worth 119.8 billion rubles, which is 17.6% higher than last year’s levels.

The Republic of Tatarstan closes the top five leading regions in crop production with a share of 4.0%. Over the year, the value of products produced in the republic’s crop production industry in actual prices increased by 18.0% to 104.7 billion rubles.

Agriculture of Russian regions

Cultivated areas of Russia

The total area under crops in Russia in 2015 amounted to 79.3 million hectares. Compared to 2014, the size of sown areas increased by 1.0%, over 5 years - by 5.5%, over 10 years - by 4.6%.

As for long-term trends, compared to the period of 20 and 25 years ago, the size of the areas decreased significantly - by 22.7% and 32.6%, respectively. In the late 1990s, early 2000s. In addition to the reduction in sown areas, the output per unit area—yield—has also fallen, which has increased the overall decline in the harvest volumes of most types of crops. Since the mid-2000s. in addition to restoring the size of cultivated areas, in the context of the introduction advanced technologies During the growing process, crop yields also increased significantly. For many types of crop products (wheat, sunflower, corn, soybeans, rapeseed, rice), gross yields significantly exceeded those of the early 1990s.

Structure of sown areas in Russia

In the structure of cultivated areas in Russia, wheat ranks first, accounting for a third of all areas in 2015 (33.8%).

Also, significant areas are accounted for by such crops as barley (11.2%), sunflower (8.8%), oats (3.8%), corn for grain (3.5%), soybeans (2.7%) , legumes (2.0% - mainly peas), rye (1.6%), sugar beets (1.3%), rapeseed (1.3%), buckwheat (1.2%).

A high share in the total size of sown areas is occupied by forage crops (annuals, perennial herbs, corn for livestock feed, sugar beets for livestock feed, other crops) - 21.4% of all areas in 2015.

In the graphs, information on the sown areas of potatoes, vegetables and melons is presented only for agricultural organizations and peasant farms, without taking into account households. Data on other crops are presented for all categories of farms.

Harvesting of main crop crops in Russia

Grain production in Russia

Production of grain of all types in Russia in 2015 amounted to 102,429.1 thousand tons, which is 34.4% or 26,244.0 thousand tons more than 10 years ago.

Growing wheat in Russia

The volume of wheat production in the Russian Federation in 2015 amounted to 61,785.8 thousand tons. Over 10 years, wheat harvests increased by 29.8%. At the same time, the area under wheat during the period under review increased not so significantly - by 5.9%. The increase in the gross yield of wheat, as well as most other crops, is largely due to increased yields.

Growing rye in Russia

Rye harvests in the Russian Federation tend to decrease, which is primarily due to a drop in demand for this crop on the domestic market and the relatively low profitability of cultivation compared to wheat. In 2015, rye harvests amounted to 2,086.7 thousand tons - 42.4% less than 10 years ago.

Growing barley in Russia

Barley harvests in the Russian Federation in 2015 amounted to 17,546.2 thousand tons, which is 11.9% more than in 2005. At the same time, the area sown with barley decreased by 2.2%. The entire increase in barley production in the Russian Federation was achieved through improved quality indicators.

Growing oats in Russia

Oat harvests in 2015 amounted to 4,535.6 thousand tons - at the level of indicators 10 years ago. At the same time, the area sown with oats decreased by 8.4%.

Growing corn in Russia

Corn harvests over 10 years increased 4.3 times and reached 13,173.3 thousand tons in 2015. Cultivated areas increased 3.4 times to 2,770.7 thousand hectares.

The main prerequisites for increasing corn production in the Russian Federation are a significant increase in demand in the domestic market, primarily from the livestock industries, where corn is used as feed, as well as growing demand in world markets. In 205, corn exports from the Russian Federation exceeded 3,600 thousand tons. With a significant increase in sown areas, the need for seeds for sowing has also increased. As of 2015, more than half of the corn seeds for sowing are imported seeds.

Growing rice in Russia

Rice growing in Russia in the last decade has achieved impressive results in terms of production volumes. Rice harvests in 2015 amounted to 1,109.8 thousand tons, which is almost 2 times higher than in 2005. At the same time, the area under rice grew by only 40%.

Growing buckwheat in Russia

Buckwheat harvests in the Russian Federation in 2015 amounted to 861.2 thousand tons, which is 42.45 more than 10 years ago. The maximum size of the buckwheat harvest over the past 15 years was in 2007 - 1,004.4 thousand tons.

Growing sugar beets in Russia

Gross sugar beet harvests in Russia in 2015 amounted to 39,030.5 thousand tons. Over 10 years, the figures increased by 83.5%. At the same time, the area under sugar beet increased by 27.9% to 1,022.2 thousand hectares.

Growing oilseeds in Russia

The cultivation of oilseeds in the Russian Federation over the past decade has been characterized by increased investment activity. This is primarily due to high domestic and global demand for oilseed products - vegetable oils, cakes, meals, protein concentrates, etc. The growth of oilseed production also contributes to sustainable development processing and Food Industry RF.

Growing sunflower seeds in Russia

The gross harvest of sunflower seeds in the Russian Federation in weight after processing in 2015 amounted to 9,280.3 thousand tons. Compared to 2005, the figures increased by 43.4%. Sunflower oil production in the Russian Federation in 2015 reached 3,647.0 thousand tons. The volume of sunflower oil exports from Russia in 2015, excluding trade with the countries of the EAEU Customs Union, amounted to 1,237.4 thousand tons. The production of sunflower cake and meal reached 3,380 thousand tons. Sales of Russian sunflower cake to foreign markets exceeded 1,240 thousand tons. The accelerated development of the industry for cultivating sunflower seeds has led to a high dependence of the domestic market on the import of sunflower seeds for sowing.

Growing soybeans in Russia

The volume of soybean production in the Russian Federation in 2015 reached 2,703.3 thousand tons. Over the past 10 years, the harvest volumes of soybeans grown in the Russian Federation have increased almost 4 times, and the sown area has increased almost 3 times.

Just 10 years ago, soybeans were actively cultivated only in Far East and in some regions of the Southern Federal District. IN last years The cultivation of soybeans has received active development in the Central Federal District, which is associated with the growing demand for soybean processed products from the livestock industry (the increase in meat production in the Russian Federation is carried out mainly due to the farms of the Central Federal District).

Russia exports soybeans (only soybeans grown in the Far East are exported - mainly to China), soybean oils and meal (mainly to EU countries, North African countries, China). The largest soybean processing enterprise is located in the Kaliningrad region. The processing facilities of factories in this region also actively work on imported raw materials - the import of soybeans to Russia in 2015 amounted to 2,066.7 thousand tons (supplies to the Russian Federation are carried out mainly from Paraguay and Brazil).

Soybean cultivation in Russia has enormous growth potential. The world's demand for soybeans is constantly increasing. The volume of world trade in soybeans in 2015 exceeded 115 million tons. For comparison, 10 years ago, in 2005, it was 65.9 million tons.

Production of soybeans in Russia in 2016 Export of soybean oil from Russia in 2014-2016.

Growing rapeseed in Russia

The volume of rapeseed harvests in the Russian Federation in 2015 amounted to 1,012.2 thousand tons. Compared to 2014, the figures decreased slightly (this is due to the fall in prices for rapeseed oil on world markets), but over 10 years they increased 4.2 times. The key drivers for the cultivation of rapeseed in the Russian Federation are the high demand for rapeseed oil from the European Union countries, where it is used as biofuel. In 2015, shipments to China increased.

Potato production in Russia

Gross potato harvests in Russia in 2015 in the industrial sector of potato growing (the industrial sector is formed by agricultural organizations and peasant farms, excluding households) exceeded 7,500 thousand tons (record volumes), which is 2.4 times more than in 2005 year. Compared to 2014, the figures increased by 22.3%. The supply of potatoes in 2015 significantly exceeded demand, resulting in a collapse in wholesale prices.

Russian potato market 2001-2015 Forecast for 2016

Vegetable production in Russia

Gross yields of open- and protected-ground vegetables in Russia in 2015 in the industrial sector of vegetable growing (the industrial sector is formed by agricultural organizations and peasant farms, excluding households) amounted to 5,312.2 thousand tons, which is 14.1% more than in 2014 and 83.2% more than 10 years ago (in 2005). The increase in fees in recent years is due to the release of a significant market share due to a fall in import volumes (suspension of the import of vegetables from a number of countries, devaluation of the ruble). In 2012-2016 There has been increased investment activity in the construction of vegetable storage facilities and greenhouses.

The most important task of the agricultural sector of the economy is to ensure the country’s food security, the basis of its sovereignty, economic and social sustainability. Agricultural and industrial policy today is aimed at making this industry highly profitable and competitive, significantly increasing the reliability of the country's supply of agricultural products, and improving their quality.

One of the most important branches of agriculture is crop production - growing plants for the production of crop products that provide the population with food, animal husbandry with feed, and the processing industry with raw materials. The plant growing industry includes all sub-sectors related to the cultivation of plants: field cultivation, meadow growing, vegetable growing, fruit growing, viticulture, floriculture, forestry. As a scientific discipline, plant growing studies only a group of crops included in the sub-branch of field farming: grain families of bluegrass, legumes, tubers, fodder root crops, spinning crops, oilseeds, essential oils, perennial and annual grasses and some other crops grown on arable land. From crop production, people receive most of their basic food products, animal feed, as well as raw materials for other industries. One of the main branches of crop production is grain production.

Crop production includes the cost of finished products obtained from the harvest of the reporting year (cereals, industrial crops, fruits and berries, fodder, vegetables and other crops), the cost of growing perennial crops and changes in the cost of unfinished production of crop products during the reporting year (sowing winter crops, plowing plowed soil, and other work carried out in the reporting year for the next year's harvest.

The dynamics of grain production in the Republic of Belarus is presented in Table 1.1 As can be seen from the data in Table 1.1, there is an increase in the volume of crop production. At the same time, it should be noted that there is a downward trend in the share of crop production in the total volume of agricultural products of the Republic of Belarus.

Table 1.1

Dynamics of agricultural production in the Republic of Belarus

* 1995 - in prices before the 2000 denomination.

Increasing grain production is one of the important tasks of further development of agriculture. Meeting the growing needs of the population for food and the development of the livestock industry depends on its solution. The production of grain crops is important for the food industry, since grain is used to bake bread, which is the main human food product.

The grain is also used to feed livestock as a concentrated feed. Grain is widely used in the processing industry for the production of alcohol, starch cereals, pasta and other products.

The Republic of Belarus produces many types of agricultural crops: grain and leguminous crops, flax fiber, sugar beets, potatoes and vegetables, fodder root crops, as well as perennial and annual grasses.

The Republic of Belarus does not belong to areas of economically efficient grain production. The yield of grain crops in the country is significantly lower, and the cost is much higher than, for example, in the main grain-producing regions of Russia. However, at the same time, grain farming in Belarus is the main branch of agriculture, the basis of all agricultural production. In the Republic of Belarus, grain farming is based on the cultivation of grain and leguminous crops.

A significant share of crop production is used as fodder. Forage is feed plant origin hay, straw, grain and other products of plant origin used in animal feeding; stern industrial production(compound feed, meat and bone meal, fish meal and other animal feed).

The state plays a significant role in the development of agricultural production. The Republic of Belarus has adopted a number of legislative acts regulating grain production. Thus, by the Decree of the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Belarus dated 01/08/2007 “On approval of the calculated balance indicators of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus for 2007.” a plan was established for the production of feed grain in 2007 throughout the country in the amount of 4911 thousand tons, which is 65.4% of the total gross grain harvest in the country. At the same time, the growth rate of production volume compared to 2006 was 122.6%. For comparison, we can cite the indicators of crop production in the countries of the European Union: in 2005, the gross grain harvest in these countries amounted to 213,122 thousand tons, while the share of grain used as fodder was 45.2%, which is significantly lower than in Republic of Belarus.

It is also important that land is a limited resource and the areas that can be used for crop production purposes are limited by climatic, geographical, economic and other factors. Therefore, the problem of the efficiency of crop production is quite relevant, and increasing the volume of grain production in the Republic of Belarus is a strategic task.

In conclusion, it should be noted that the production of feed grain is one of the activities of crop production. Feed grain is intended to provide animal feed, so the main consumer of feed is livestock farming. In conditions of increasing agricultural production volumes in general and increasing the share of livestock production in the total agricultural production, an increase in the volume of feed grain production is necessary.

Methodology for analyzing crop production

Analysis of crop production must begin with a study of production volume. (Fig. 1.1).

Analysis tasks:

systematic monitoring of changes in dynamics and implementation of forecast production volumes;

determining the influence of factors on the volume of production;

identification of on-farm reserves for increasing its production;

assessment of the farm’s activities to use opportunities to increase production, taking into account objective and subjective factors;

development of measures to develop identified reserves for increasing production.

Rice. 1.1. Flowchart for analysis of crop production.

The main source of information for analyzing the production of crop products is report 9-APK "Production and cost of crop products", which provides data on the size of sown areas by crop, their yield, volume of production in physical terms and its cost. The corresponding planned indicators are reflected in the economic plan.

Analysis of the dynamics and implementation of the crop production plan. It begins with studying the dynamics both for individual species and for crop production in general with an assessment of the changes that have occurred.

To do this, it is necessary to have data on the volume of crop production at comparable prices, as well as on the gross harvest of products for each crop. Based on these data, basic and chain growth and increment rates are calculated. For greater clarity, the dynamics of product production can be reflected graphically.

Data on the volume of production per 1 hectare of agricultural land must be compared with the average indicators for the district, region, as well as with data from other farms.

This will allow a more objective assessment of the farm’s work to increase crop production.

Of great importance for assessing the activity of a farm is the analysis of the fulfillment of forecast indicators for the volume of crop production both for the farm as a whole and for other divisions.

For this purpose, actual gross production yields for each crop are compared with forecast data, and the percentage of plan completion and deviation from it are identified.

Based on this comparison, we can conclude that the production plan has been fulfilled.

It is known that the volume of crop production depends on the size and structure of sown areas, the death of crops and the yield of agricultural crops. Each of the listed factors, in turn, depends on a number of reasons and circumstances (Fig. 1.2). First of all, it is necessary to identify the degree of influence of first-order factors, since the volume of products obtained is directly dependent on them. All other factors have an indirect effect. The deterministic factor model of the actual gross harvest of a specific type of crop product has the following form:

BC= (S - S G) * U, (1)

Where Sun - gross harvest of products in physical weight;

S - crop area,

S G- area where crops died;

Y - crop yield, c/ha.

Fig. 1.2 Structural-logical factor model of the volume of crop production.

To measure the influence of factors, you can use the methods of chain substitution, absolute differences and relative differences. To determine the degree of influence of each factor on the gross harvest, you can use the chain substitution method. The calculation using the relative difference method is done as follows:

The results show which factors had a positive or negative impact on the volume of production received and to what extent. This allows not only to objectively evaluate business results, but also to identify untapped opportunities to increase production.

Analysis of the size and structure of crop areas. After determining the influence of factors on the volume of crop production, it is necessary to analyze in more detail the implementation of forecast data and the dynamics of sown areas by crop, establish changes in the size and structure of sown areas and give them an economic assessment.

Calculation of the influence of the structure of sown areas on the yield of products for a group of homogeneous crops and for crop production in general can be carried out in two ways: chain substitution and absolute differences.

When using the chain substitution method, the total yield of products is compared for the actual and basic structure of sown areas (the total sown area and the output per 1 hectare for each crop must be the same):

where VP is product output;

VP conv1, VP conv2 - total output for actual and base area, respectively;

S total - total sown area,

UDi 0 , UDi 1 - specific gravity area occupied by the i-th crop in the base and reporting periods.

If the structure of crops had a positive impact on the yield of crop production, but at the same time the amount of costs increased and the amount of profit decreased, then changes in the structure of crops cannot be assessed positively.

Analysis of productivity and factors determining its level. Crop productivity is the main factor that determines the volume of crop production. Therefore, much attention is paid to this indicator. When analyzing productivity, it is necessary to study the dynamics of its growth for each crop or group of crops over a long period of time and establish what measures the enterprise is taking to increase its level. In the process of analysis, it is necessary to establish the degree of fulfillment of the plan for the yield of each crop and calculate the influence of factors on changes in its value.

Yield change factors:

natural and climatic: soil fertility, soil mechanical composition, terrain, temperature regime, groundwater level, precipitation, etc.;

economic: quantity, quality and structure of applied fertilizers; quality and deadlines for all field work; quality of seed material; change in the varietal composition of crops; liming and gypsuming of soil; control of plant diseases and pests; alternation of crops in crop rotation fields, etc.

The enterprise's supply of organic and mineral fertilizers is determined by comparing the actual amount of prepared and used fertilizers with the planned need. These data need to be linked to the dynamics and implementation of the yield plan for the relevant crops.

At the end of the year, the actual payback of fertilizers for each crop is calculated:

Ok = (U f -U r) / KU f, (8),

where Ok is the payback of 1 c NPK;

Uf - actual crop yield;

U r - yield from natural soil fertility without the use of fertilizers (according to agronomic records);

KUf - the actual amount of fertilizer applied per 1 hectare of crop crops, centners of NPK.

A decrease in the payback of fertilizers can occur due to their imbalance, poor quality, timing and methods of application to the soil.

During the analysis, it is necessary to compare the actual and planned structure of fertilizers for each crop, the timing and methods of their application. If, for example, for grain crops, according to the norm, the ratio N: P: K should be 1: 1.2: 0.8, but in fact it is 1: 0.6: 0.7, then with a lack of phosphorus fertilizers it is impossible to achieve their high payback.

To determine the payback of fertilizers, you can also use correlation analysis, provided that there is a sufficient number of observations about the yield of the crop and the amount of fertilizer applied to it.

If you build a graph, you can see that the relationship between these indicators is straightforward and can be expressed by a straight line equation:

y x = a + bx, (9),

where y is the yield, c/ha;

x is the amount of fertilizer applied per 1 ha, and NPK; a and b are the parameters of the equation that need to be found.

To find the values of the coefficients a and b, it is necessary to solve the following system of equations:

In this equation, coefficient a is a constant yield value that is not related to the amount of fertilizer applied (at x = 0). Coefficient b shows how much centner/ha the yield increases with the addition of 1 centner/ha of fertilizers.

In addition to the connection equation in correlation analysis, the correlation coefficient can be calculated, which characterizes the closeness of the relationship between the studied indicators:

and the coefficient of determination, which shows the degree of dependence of the factors:

The higher the correlation coefficient, the closer the connection between the analyzed factors. The coefficient of determination, in turn, reflects the degree of dependence of the factors.

The results of correlation analysis can be used to calculate reserves for yield growth and to determine its level for the future, provided that the relationships between factors do not change.

The volume of agricultural production is one of the main indicators characterizing the activities of an agricultural enterprise. The volume of product sales, and therefore the degree to which the population’s needs for food and industry’s needs for raw materials are satisfied, depends on its value. The level of its cost, the amount of profit, the level of profitability, the financial position of the enterprise, its solvency and other economic indicators also depend on the volume of production.

The volume of crop production is significantly influenced by the size and structure of crop areas. Let's consider and analyze the size and structure of sown areas in the agricultural production complex "Kolkhoz Krasavsky".

Table 6 - Size and structure of sown areas

Name of crops	Sown area, ha	Structure of sown areas, %

Cereals - total
including: winter grains
spring grains
pulses
Sunflower
Perennial herbs
Annual herbs

Silage crops
Total sown area

In the reporting year, compared to the previous year, there was an increase in the sown area by 473 hectares and it amounted to 5735 hectares. This happened mainly due to the expansion of the area under spring grains by 500 hectares, perennial grasses by 547 hectares and corn for silage and green fodder by 51 hectares. At the same time, the area under winter grains decreased significantly by 242 hectares, legumes by 16 hectares, sunflower by 80 hectares, annual grasses by 267 hectares and silage crops by 20 hectares.

The main share in the structure of the farm's sown area is occupied by grains - 2673 (46.6%), including spring grains - 1467 hectares (54.9%), winter grains - 911 hectares (34.1%), grain legumes - 295 hectares ( 11.0%) and perennial grasses -1214 ha (21.2%). The share of corn for silage and green fodder was 529 hectares (9.2%), annual grasses - 525 hectares (9.1%), silage crops -100 hectares (1.7%).

Table 7 - Gross harvest and yield of agricultural crops in the agricultural production complex "Collective farm "Krasavsky"

Name of crops	Gross harvest, c	Productivity, c/ha

Cereals and legumes, including:
winter grains
spring grains
pulses
Sunflower
Perennial herbs - total, including:

for seeds
for green food
Annual herbs - total, including:

for seeds
for green food
Corn for silage and green fodder

An analysis of Table 7 shows a reduction in the reporting year in the gross harvest of grains and legumes to 30,612 quintals, sunflower to 5,780 quintals, perennial grasses for hay to 9,633 quintals and for seeds to 6,120 quintals, annual grasses for seeds to 5,488 quintals. The gross harvest of winter grains decreased significantly to 19,440 quintals and spring grains to 8,262 quintals. At the same time, there was an increase in the gross harvest of legumes - 2910 quintals, perennial grasses for green fodder - 199 quintals, annual grasses for hay - 9947 quintals and corn for silage and green fodder - 67551 quintals.

In 2012, there was an increase in the yield of grain and leguminous products to 15.38 c/ha, including winter grains -21.34 c/ha, grain legumes -9.86 c/ha; annual grasses for hay -33.38 c/ha and corn for silage and green fodder -127.70 c/ha. The yield of such types of products as spring grains decreased -8.39 c/ha, sunflower -8.3 c/ha, perennial grasses for hay -27.44 c/ha.

The volume of crop production depends on the size of sown areas and crop yields. Let us consider the influence of these factors on changes in gross output.

Table 8 - The influence of yield and size of sown areas on changes in gross output in the agricultural production complex "Collective farm "Krasavsky"

Product type	Crop area, ha	Productivity, c/ha	Gross harvest, c	Deviation of 2012 from 2010, c
					including at the expense
	Yield S
Winter grains
Spring grains
Pulses
Sunflower

Analyzing Table 8, we can conclude that in the reporting year the decrease in the gross harvest of winter grains by 1026 c was due to a decrease in the sown area by 1520 hectares, spring grains to 9070 c due to a decrease in yield by 2.29 c/ha. The increase in the gross harvest of sunflower by 437 c was influenced by an increase in yield by 0.8 c/ha.

Commodity products are the part of gross output intended for sale. The main indicator characterizing the marketability of an enterprise is the level of marketability. The level of marketability is the ratio of sold products and gross, expressed as a percentage:

where TP - sold products rub.;

GP - gross output, rub.

Let's calculate the level of marketability of crop products for the agricultural production complex "Kolkhoz Krasavsky" for 3 years:

Marketability level in the period 2010-2012 averages 80%. This suggests that the enterprise sells the bulk of its crop production and uses only a small part for its own needs. At the same time, the highest level of marketability was observed in 2011 - 103%, which indicates a reduction in surplus stocks of crop products. Excess stocks were formed due to the low level of marketability of crop products, which in 2010 amounted to 62%.

An agricultural enterprise can sell its products in the following areas: selling products to other organizations and enterprises, selling products on the market, through barter transactions, selling to the public and on account of wages for farm workers.

Let's consider the channels for selling crop products in the agricultural production complex "Kolkhoz Krasavsky"

Table 9 - Channels for selling crop products

In the reporting year, the farm sold crop products to other organizations, in markets, to employees of the enterprise and for the payment of dividends. Revenue for all products sold amounted to 10,120 thousand rubles. The largest share in the total volume of products sold is occupied by sales to markets and other organizations - 80%. Revenue from this channel is 8046 thousand rubles.

Determine the relative values (shares) of production (d) of crop and livestock production by periods. Draw conclusions.

Solution:

Let's find the share of crop and livestock production using the formula d=n/n:

During the reporting period:

d p = 0.52, or 52%;

df = 0.48, or 48%;

During the reporting period:

d p = 0.54, or 54%;

df = 0.46, or 46%.

The share of crop products is greater than the share of livestock products in total agricultural production both in the reporting period and in the previous period. In the reporting period, there was a decrease in the share of crop production and, accordingly, an increase in the share of livestock products (by 2%).

Task 5.

Determine the relative amount of coordination if during the period the production of linen fabrics amounted to 116 thousand m 2, woolen fabrics - 147 thousand m 2.

Solution:

OB coordination = 116/147 = 0.8, i.e. The volume of production of linen fabrics was 0.8, or 80% of the volume of production of woolen fabrics.

City of Polotsk – 82,814;

City of Novopolotsk – 99,295.

Calculate the relative values of comparing the population of the city of Novopolotsk in relation to the population of the city of Polotsk.

Solution:

OB comparison of the population of the city of Novopolotsk in relation to the population of the city of Polotsk will be:

99,295 / 83,632 = 1.187, or 118.7%

Conclusion: The population in the city of Novopolotsk is 1,187 times greater than in the city of Polotsk or 18.7%

Task 7. As of January 1, 2010, the population in Polotsk was 83,632 people. During the reporting period, 878 people were born; died - 1,188 people.

Determine the relative value of birth rate and death rate.

Solution:

The birth rate is defined as the ratio of the number of births to the population per 1000 people.

Fertility RH = * 1000 = 10.5(persons)

The mortality rate is defined as the ratio of the number of deaths to the average annual population per 100 people.

Mortality rate = * 1000 = 14.2(persons)

The number of deaths exceeds the number of births (natural decline).

Task 8. The number of cattle (head) on the farm is 1220 heads. including cows making up 30% of the entire cattle herd. The average annual milk yield is 4670 kg. Area of agricultural land –

Calculate the density of cattle, cows and milk production per 100 hectares of agricultural land.

Solution:

Number of cows, heads: 1220 0.30 = 366;

Gross milk yield, c: 4670 366 = 1709220 (kg) = 17092.2 (c);

Cattle density, head: 100 = 43;

Density of cows, heads: 100 = 13;

Milk production per 100 hectares of agricultural land, c: 100 = 607.8.

Task 9. The potato yield this year was 120 c/ha, on an area of 40 hectares. They planned to obtain a yield of 130 c/ha on an area of 35 hectares.

Solution:

Gross harvest according to plan, c: VS pl = 130 35 = 4550;

Actual gross collection, c: VS f = 120 40 = 4800;

Plan completion percentage gross collection:

OV issue. pl = 100

RH exhaust pl = 100% = 105.5%;

Percentage of plan fulfillment for yield

OV issue. pl = 100%;

OV issue. pl = 100% = 92.3%

Conclusion: The gross potato harvest in the reporting year increased by 5.5% compared to the base year, including due to an increase in the size of the sown area, it increased by 14.3%, but a decrease in harvest by 7.7% reduced the gross harvest by 8.8 %.

Problem 10. Available data:

Milk production per 100 hectares of agricultural land;

Increase in cattle per 100 hectares of agricultural land.

Draw an economic conclusion.

Solution:

Per 100 agricultural lands:

OB intensity = 100%;

Conclusion: In the reporting year, compared to the base year, milk production per 100 hectares of agricultural land decreased by 42.6 tons (6.5%), the increase in cattle increased by 0.7 tons (16.7%).

Problem 11. There are farm data on the size of land, hectares:

Land area – 2830;

Total agricultural land – 2812;

Arable land – 1408;

Haymaking – 881;

Pastures – 523.

Calculate the structure of agricultural land, the share of agricultural land in the total land area. Draw a conclusion.

Solution:

We calculate the structure of agricultural land using the formula:

OB structure = 100%;

Then: - arable land - 100% = 50.1%;

Haymaking - = 31.3%;

Pastures - = 8.1%.

Share of agricultural land in the total land area: 100% = 99.3%.

Conclusion: The largest share in the structure of land is occupied by arable land.

Problem 12. There is data on grain yield, c/ha:

1) The absolute size of the planned target for 2010:

23.9 1.1 = 26.3 (c/ha)

2) The absolute size of the actual yield:

26.3 0.94 = 24.7 (c/ha).

Problem 13. For two agricultural enterprises, calculate relative comparison indicators according to:

Grain yield, c/ha;

Average annual milk yield, kg.

Draw conclusions.

Initial data:

Solution:

We take one of the agricultural enterprises as a comparison base, for example KUSP “Zelenka”, then

By grain yield, c/ha:

OB comparison = 100% = 158.8%;

By average annual milk yield, kg:

Comparison RH = 10% = 99%

Conclusion: In the Polota CUSP, grain yields are higher than in the Zelenka CUSP by 58.9%, but the average annual milk yield is 1% lower.

TOPIC: “Average values”

Task 1.

Solution:

The average yield for each crop is the variant values of the characteristic (x).

The average yield for the group of grains as a whole is determined using the arithmetic weighted average formula, since the area (f) is not the same:

= 23.8(c/ha)

Task 2.

Solution:

The conditions of the problem differ from the conditions of the first one; the initial data is the yield () and the gross yield (), but the area (f) is not given. In this case, we calculate the average using the harmonic average formula. And since the gross harvest (-weight) is not the same, according to the weighted harmonic mean formula

substituting the values in the formula and bringing them to the same units of measurement

Garm = = = =26.9(c/ha);

Implementation of a plan:

% completed = 100%;

% completed = 100% = 101.5

The farm exceeded the yield plan by 1.5%.

Task 3.

The potato yield for the district's farms is characterized by the following data:

Calculate the average yield by region.

Solution:

Average yield is a variant of the values of characteristics (), but they are presented in the form of intervals. Therefore, it is first necessary to determine the middle of each of the intervals (as the half sum of the lower and upper bounds). When determining the value of the open interval (the first), we focus on the value of the subsequent interval, the last one on the value of the subsequent interval. Then the middle of the first interval = 85; the latter - = 150. The average yield is determined using the formula for the arithmetic average

= = = = 105 c/ha

Task 4.

Available data:

Calculate: - average yield for the group of grains, c/ha;

Average cost 1t, thousand rubles;

Average labor costs for 1t of grain, man/hour.

Solution:

To calculate the average yield, we take the yield and gross harvest, and calculate it using the harmonic weighted formula:

Garm = = = 21.7 (c/ha).

To calculate the average cost, we take the cost of 1t () and the gross harvest (f). We calculate the average using the weighted arithmetic average formula:

= = = = 401.3 (thousand rubles).

To calculate the average costs per 1 ton, we take the costs of all products () and the quantity of products produced (f):

12.9 (person hour).

TOPIC: “Indicators of variation”

Task 1.

There is data on passing the session in two groups

Solution:

The average grade point is determined by the weighted arithmetic mean:

Because

The averaged characteristic (score) is given in the form of an interval - we determine the middle of each of the intervals, then:

Average grade point for the first group:

= = = = 6,0;

Average grade point for the second group:

= = = = 5,5.

Academic performance is higher in the first group, but to characterize where academic performance is more stable, let’s calculate the indicators of variation (fluctuation):

Mean square deviation and coefficient of variation.

Average square deviation (variance) for the first group:

= = = 4,4;

= = = = 1,85.

The coefficient of variation characterizes the deviation as a percentage:

100% = 7,3%;

100% = 4,2%.

The average academic score is higher in the first group, however, academic performance is more stable (more homogeneous) in the second, since the indicator of variation (fluctuation) of academic performance in the second group is lower.

TOPIC: “Series of dynamics”

Task 1.

Available data:

Potato yield (in farms of all categories of the Republic of Belarus; centners per hectare)